Expert Insights from: Thomas Rebeyrol, Former COO ADNOC & VP MENA
The GCC is sitting on one of the most valuable infrastructure advantages in the global energy transition, and most people outside the industry don’t fully appreciate it. When we talk about hydrogen strategy (green hydrogen vs blue hydrogen) in this region, the conversation quickly splits into two camps: green hydrogen, produced by splitting water molecules using renewable electricity, and blue hydrogen, produced from natural gas with carbon capture. Both matter. But the timelines, economics, and infrastructure requirements are very different.
Thomas Rebeyrol has spent nearly three decades in the energy sector, including senior roles at TotalEnergies and ADNOC. He’s worked across GCC markets for years and brings a strategic operator’s perspective to what is often a very theoretical debate. We sat down with him to understand how the region is actually navigating the green-vs-blue question, and what the real decision-making calculus looks like on the ground.
Blue Hydrogen Is Already Happening
The simplest way to understand the GCC’s current position is this: blue hydrogen is where the real investment is going today, and it’s already producing results. The flagship example Thomas points to is ADNOC’s integrated carbon capture and blue ammonia project in Abu Dhabi, a $20+ billion investment that is already producing 1 million tonnes of blue ammonia per year, with a target of 2 million tonnes.
Blue hydrogen is produced by cracking natural gas and capturing the resulting CO2, which is then stored underground in depleted oil or gas reservoirs. The GCC has a natural structural advantage here: its existing gas processing infrastructure, carbon storage capacity, and capital reserves make blue hydrogen commercially viable right now in a way that green hydrogen simply isn’t.
“The GCC has the infrastructure, the geographical position, the capital, and most importantly, the will to do it. Blue hydrogen is not a future ambition. It’s already happening.”
Ammonia, in Thomas’s framing, is the more practical vehicle for transporting hydrogen at scale. Because hydrogen is extremely volatile and difficult to liquefy, requiring temperatures of minus 253 degrees Celsius, far colder than LNG at minus 160, converting it into ammonia (by combining it with nitrogen) gives it the energy density and storability needed to move across global supply chains. ADNOC’s blue ammonia is being exported to Northeast Asian markets, primarily Japan and South Korea, where it’s used to decarbonize industrial power generation.
Green Hydrogen’s Moment Is Still Ahead
Green hydrogen, produced by using renewable electricity to electrolyse water, is where the long-term ambition sits. But Thomas is candid about the current state of play: the economics aren’t there yet for most markets, and investment decisions are still fraught with uncertainty.
A few years ago, there was enormous excitement about hydrogen powering mobility, trucks, passenger vehicles, and urban transport. Much of that excitement has since cooled. Batteries won the mobility race, at least for cars and lighter commercial vehicles. Today’s real green hydrogen opportunity lies in heavy industry: refineries, steel manufacturing, and chemical production, sectors that can’t easily electrify and genuinely need a clean hydrogen input.
Europe’s regulatory trajectory matters here. With more than 70 refineries on the continent all expected to transition to green or blue hydrogen feedstocks in the coming years, the demand signal is real; it’s just a question of timing and price. The GCC, sitting geographically between Europe and Northeast Asia, is well positioned to serve both markets once green hydrogen production reaches commercial viability.
“The need for green or blue hydrogen in industry is growing. But taking the decision to invest now versus waiting a few years, that is always the challenge when you’re talking about billions for markets that aren’t yet fully confirmed.”
For green hydrogen specifically, the infrastructure challenge is acute. Unlike biofuels or even blue ammonia, you cannot meaningfully retrofit existing oil and gas infrastructure to handle green hydrogen. The pipelines, compression systems, and storage facilities all need to be purpose-built. One partial workaround is blending hydrogen into existing gas networks at up to 20% concentration, which avoids the need to fully retrofit pipeline systems, but beyond that threshold, full conversion is required.
The Infrastructure Advantage Is Real, But Not Automatic
One of the most important points Thomas makes is that the GCC’s infrastructure edge, its ports, terminals, pipelines, and processing facilities, is a genuine strategic asset, but it doesn’t translate automatically into sustainable fuel capacity.
For biomass-based fuels and SAF, the conversion is relatively manageable. Much of the existing infrastructure can be repurposed with segregation upgrades and cleaning processes, essentially ensuring that bio-blended products don’t contaminate fossil fuel streams. The standards here are extremely tight: sustainable aviation fuel must meet 100% of airline specifications, and a deviation of even 0.01% disqualifies a batch. That’s operationally demanding, but it’s well within the competency of GCC refinery operators who already manage strict product segregation.
Hydrogen and ammonia are a different matter. The safety requirements, the infrastructure integrity demands, and the sheer capital intensity of dedicated hydrogen logistics chains mean that the GCC’s conventional infrastructure advantage is limited. This is where greenfield investment, building new, dedicated capacity, becomes unavoidable.
Retrofitting for bio-based fuels runs roughly 40% cheaper than building new. But for green hydrogen, retrofitting isn’t really an option, which fundamentally changes the investment equation for developers thinking about entry points into the sector.
| Readiness Factor | Blue Hydrogen | Green Hydrogen |
|---|---|---|
| Existing Infrastructure Fit Can current pipelines & terminals be used? | ● High — built on gas processing assets |
● Low — requires purpose-built systems |
| Capital Cost to Deploy Relative investment required today | ● Lower via brownfield expansion |
● Very high — greenfield only |
| Commercial Readiness Confirmed demand and investment decisions | ● Active — ADNOC, Aramco projects underway |
● Developing — demand still forming |
| Export Logistics Ability to ship at scale via existing routes | ● Strong via ammonia conversion |
● Developing — liquefaction at −253°C required |
| Decarbonization Ceiling Long-term emissions reduction potential | ● Significant — depends on CCS performance |
● Highest — zero direct CO₂ when scaled |
| Safety Complexity Handling and segregation requirements | ● Manageable via existing protocols |
● High — extreme flammability, dedicated systems needed |
Partnerships Are the Path Forward
The strategic model Thomas sees as most effective in this space isn’t a single company going it alone; it’s the kind of complementary partnership that combines GCC capital and long-term vision with the technical execution capabilities of international energy majors. The Aramco and TotalEnergies collaboration at the Satorp refinery in Jubail is his reference point: Aramco brings a 20-to-30-year strategic horizon and access to competitive feedstocks; TotalEnergies brings proven operational experience in sustainable fuels conversion, having already successfully executed similar projects in Europe.
This pattern, NOC capital and infrastructure paired with IOC technical expertise, is likely to define how the GCC scales its sustainable fuels ambitions over the next decade. It also reflects a broader truth: the energy transition in this region is not happening despite the oil and gas legacy, but through it.
Thomas’s closing advice for any developer or consultant looking to enter sustainable fuels in the GCC is direct: secure your offtake before you build, and secure your feedstock before you promise delivery. In a sector where contracts span 20 years, and investments run into the billions, the fundamentals haven’t changed. The molecules may be cleaner, but the business logic is the same.
